4 September 2024
Ecora Resources PLC
("Ecora", the "Group" or the "Company")
Half year results
Ecora Resources PLC (LSE/TSX: ECOR) announces half year results for the six months ended 30 June 2024 which are available on both the Group's website at www.ecora-resources.com and on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
Ecora is the leading royalty company focused on supporting the supply of industrial commodities essential to creating a sustainable future. The Group has a portfolio which combines volume growth in 2024 and 2025 from its currently producing royalty portfolio with an extensive pipeline of high-quality development projects that are expected to drive material medium term revenue growth.
Marc Bishop Lafleche, Chief Executive Officer of Ecora, commented:
"Our portfolio contribution in the first half of 2024 was up 15% year-on-year, driven by a strong performance from Kestrel. H2 portfolio contribution is expected to be principally weighted to the Group's other producing royalties including production volume growth at the Voisey's Bay and Mantos Blancos mines. Further production growth at Voisey's Bay is expected thereafter as underground operations ramp-up up to steady state production levels.
"Capstone Copper's updated Feasibility Study on the Santo Domingo project reiterated the project's robust economics and potential to operate within the lowest cost quartile of global copper mines. BHP's decision to temporarily suspend operations at its Australian Nickel division, in light of current nickel market weakness, including the construction of West Musgrave, was disappointing but we remain confident in the project's potential as a low-cost producer of nickel and copper.
"We have seen a strong uptick in opportunities to further grow our portfolio, which we continue to evaluate applying our stated investment criteria and a capital allocation priority to maintain a strong balance sheet."
Financial highlights:
· Total portfolio contribution in H1 2024 of
· Adjusted earnings per share in H1 2024 of 10.38c (H1 2023: 9.06c)
· Profit before tax in H1 2024 of
· Net debt at 30 June 2024 of
· The Group amended and extended its
· Half year dividend of
· Proceeds of CA$11.1million (
Portfolio highlights:
· Strong performance from Kestrel steelmaking coal royalty delivering volumes from private royalty area in H1 at the top end of full year volume guidance; no material volumes expected in H2 2024
· Four deliveries of cobalt were received in H1 under the Voisey's Bay stream (each delivery is 20 tonnes of which 70% is attributable to the Group). With the Voisey's Bay Mine Expansion Project construction phase nearing completion, production volumes are expected to ramp-up with between 8 and 12 cobalt lot deliveries expected in the second half of 2024
· Year-on-year production volume growth expected in 2024 and through 2025 at operations underlying the Group's royalty portfolio
Post-period end events
· On 1 July the Group announced the acquisition of a 0.85% Gross Revenue Royalty over the Phalaborwa rare earths project located in South Africa, and operated by Rainbow Rare Earths Ltd ("Rainbow") for a cash consideration of
· On 11 July, BHP announced that it will temporarily suspend the construction of the West Musgrave nickel-copper project in October 2024, with the decision to be reviewed by February 2027
· On 31 July, Capstone Copper Corp. ("Capstone") published an updated Feasibility Study for the Santo Domingo project which reiterated its robust economics as a low-cost operation with expected cash costs of
Portfolio contribution |
HY 2024 |
|
HY 2023 |
FY 2023 |
|
$m |
YoY |
$m |
$m |
Core portfolio |
|
|
|
|
Voisey's Bay (cobalt) |
2.0 |
(35%) |
3.1 |
5.6 |
Mantos Blancos (copper) |
2.8 |
(15%) |
3.3 |
6.1 |
Maracás Menchen (vanadium) |
1.1 |
(35%) |
1.7 |
3.1 |
Four Mile (uranium) |
1.4 |
133% |
0.6 |
6.8 |
Carlota (copper) |
0.3 |
- |
0.3 |
0.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Royalty and stream income |
7.6 |
(15%) |
9.0 |
22.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dividends - LIORC & Flowstream |
0.3 |
(70%) |
1.0 |
2.0 |
Interest - McClean Lake |
0.8 |
(11%) |
0.9 |
1.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Royalty and stream related revenue |
8.7 |
(20%) |
10.9 |
26.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
EVBC(1) |
0.5 |
(58%) |
1.2 |
0.7 |
Principal repayment - McClean Lake |
1.7 |
31% |
1.3 |
2.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Less: |
|
|
|
|
Metal streams cost of sales |
(0.4) |
(43%) |
(0.7) |
(1.3) |
Total portfolio contribution from core assets |
10.5 |
(17%) |
12.7 |
27.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Near term run-off portfolio |
|
|
|
|
Kestrel (steel making coal) |
40.8 |
28% |
31.8 |
35.9 |
Total near term run-off portfolio |
40.8 |
28% |
31.8 |
35.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Total portfolio contribution |
51.3 |
15% |
44.5 |
63.6 |
(1) Under IFRS 9, the royalties received from EVBC are reflected in the fair value movement of the underlying royalty rather than recorded as royalty and stream related revenue.
Analyst presentation
There will be an analyst presentation webcast at 9:00am (BST) today (4 September 2024) hosted by Marc Bishop Lafleche (CEO) and Kevin Flynn (CFO).
Please join the event 5-10 minutes prior to the scheduled start time. When prompted, provide the confirmation code or event title.
Event |
Ecora Resources - Half Year Results |
Time Zone |
Dublin, Edinburgh, Lisbon, London |
Start Time/Date |
9:00am/4 September 2024 |
Webcast Link |
For further information
Ecora Resources PLC |
+44 (0) 20 3435 7400 |
Geoff Callow - Head of Investor Relations |
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FTI Consulting Sara Powell / Ben Brewerton / Nick Hennis
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+44(0) 20 3727 1000 ecoraresources@fticonsulting.com
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Notes to Editors:
Alternative Performance Measures
Throughout this announcement a number of financial measures are used to assess the Group's performance. The measures are defined below and, with the exception of operating profit/(loss), are non-IFRS measures because they exclude amounts that are included in, or include amounts that are excluded from, the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with IFRS, or are calculated using financial measures that are not calculated in accordance with IFRS. The non-IFRS measures may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures used by other companies and have limitations as analytical tools and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for analysis of the Group's operating results as reported under IFRS. The Group does not regard these non-IFRS measures as a substitute for, or superior to, the equivalent measures calculated and presented in accordance with IFRS or those calculated using financial measures that are calculated in accordance with IFRS.
Portfolio contribution
Portfolio contribution represents funds received or receivable from the Group's underlying royalty and stream related assets, and is taken into account by the Board when determining dividend levels. Portfolio contribution is royalty and stream related revenue net of metal stream costs of sales, plus royalties received or receivable from royalty financial instruments carried at FVTPL and principal repayments received under the Denison financing agreement. Refer to note 21 of the condensed consolidated financial statements for portfolio contribution.
Operating profit
Operating profit represents the Group's underlying operating performance from its royalty and stream interests. Operating profit is royalty and stream related revenue, less metal streams cost of sales, amortisation and depletion of royalties and streams and operating expenses. Operating profit excludes impairments and revaluations, and reconciles to 'operating profit before impairments and revaluations' on the income statement.
Adjusted earnings and adjusted earnings per share
Adjusted earnings represent the Group's underlying operating performance from core activities. Adjusted earnings is the profit/loss attributable to equity holders plus royalties received from financial instruments carried at fair value through profit or loss, less all valuation movements and impairments (which are non-cash adjustments that arise primarily due to changes in commodity prices), amortisation and depletion charges, unrealised foreign exchange gains and losses, and any associated deferred tax, together with any profit or loss on non-core asset disposals as such disposals are not expected to be ongoing. Adjusted earnings divided by the weighted average number of shares in issue gives adjusted earnings per share. Refer to note 5 of the condensed consolidated financial statements for adjusted earnings and adjusted earnings per share.
Net debt
Net debt is calculated as borrowings less cash and cash equivalents. Refer to note 14 of the condensed consolidated financial statements for details of the Group's borrowings and net debt.
Free cash flow and free cash flow per share
The structure of a number of the Group's royalty financing arrangements, such as the Denison transaction completed in February 2017, result in a significant amount of cash flow being reported as principal repayments, which are not included in the income statement. As the Group considers dividend cover by reference to both adjusted earnings per share and the free cash flow generated by its assets, management have determined that free cash flow per share is a key performance indicator.
Free cash flow per share is calculated by dividing net cash generated from operating activities, plus proceeds from the disposal of non-core assets and any cash considered as the repayment of principal under commodity related financial agreements, less finance costs, by the weighted average number of shares in issue. Refer to note 19 to the condensed consolidated financial statements for free cash flow per share.
BUSINESS REVIEW
Results
The Group delivered a strong financial performance in the first half of the year reporting a total portfolio contribution of
Cobalt prices have remained at cyclically low levels, with an H1 2024 average price received for the sale of Voisey's Bay cobalt of
On 27 March, the Group announced an updated capital allocation framework, and in conjunction a
This is the first period in which the Group will declare its dividend under the revised framework, with dividend distributions based on a percentage of average free cash flow across the previous two half year periods. Across H2 2023 and H1 2024 the average free cash flow totalled
On 1 July the Group announced the acquisition of a 0.85% Gross Revenue Royalty on the Phalaborwa Rare Earths Project in South Africa. The project is operated by Rainbow and in connection with the royalty acquisition, the Group subscribed for
In January, the Group announced that it had amended and extended its
The Group ended the period 30 June 2024 with net debt of
Adjusted earnings in the period increased to
Outlook
The second half of the year is expected to be weighted towards the Group's portfolio ex-Kestrel, with Kestrel operations moving outside the Group's royalty area before returning in H1 2025 at current mining rates. Based on H1 operating partner production levels, we continue to expect year-on-year underlying production volume growth across our royalty portfolio in 2024 and as well as 2025.
The Voisey's Bay underground mine expansion was 96% complete as of the end of Q2 2024, with the mining of the underground Reid Brook and Eastern Deeps deposits now ramping up such that the Group expects to receive eight to twelve deliveries of cobalt in H2 2024 and between 20 and 28 deliveries of cobalt in 2025. At life of mine average production levels, expected to be reached by the end of 2026, the Group will receive around 40 deliveries of cobalt per annum.
At the start of H2 2024, mining activities at Kestrel have moved outside the Group's private royalty area and are expected to stay outside for the remainder of the year before returning in late Q1 2025. With Kestrel and Voisey's Bay volumes for 2025 expected to be higher than in 2024, the Group is well positioned to deliver a strong financial performance in 2025 (at constant commodity prices).
We were pleased to see Capstone publish an updated Feasibility Study for the Santo Domingo project which confirmed the robust economics of the project which could contribute approximately
A final investment decision by Brazilian Nickel on the Piauí project is not expected before 2025, which would trigger the right, but not obligation, to invest a further
We believe that the capital we have deployed in the past four years has given us the assets that will become the cornerstone of our portfolio well into the next decade and beyond. While our short-term focus is on high-quality acquisitions that are producing, or close to production, and from which we would have a clear path to de-leveraging, we will also look at earlier stage opportunities that are high quality but smaller ticket sizes, in line with our capital allocation framework which prioritises the maintenance of a strong balance sheet.
PORTFOLIO REVIEW
Producing Royalties
Voisey's Bay (Cobalt)
Attributable deliveries under the Voisey's Bay cobalt stream totalled 56 tonnes (H1 2023: 84 tonnes) during the period (four 20 tonne deliveries of which 70% is attributable to the Group), realising an average sales price of approximately
Cobalt deliveries in Q2 were impacted by annual planned maintenance at the Long Harbour refinery. Between 8 and 12 deliveries are expected during H2 with one having been received, one at port and two due to be shipped imminently.
Kestrel (Steelmaking coal)
Production from Kestrel was within the Group's private royalty area for the majority of H1 2024 with saleable production volumes of 2.0Mt at the top end of FY 24 guidance (1.8-2.0 Mt). There are expected to be minimal volumes from the Group's private royalty area in H2 2024, leaving FY 24 guidance at c. 2.0 Mt.
Operations are expected to move back inside the Group's private royalty area during H1 2025 and overall volumes in the Group's royalty area in 2025 are currently anticipated to be higher than the 2.0 Mt guided to in 2024.
Mantos Blancos (Copper)
Total copper production of 21.0kt (H1 2023: 25.8kt) was lower than the operator guidance of 23- 28kt due to localised geotechnical issues impacting the mine sequence in Q2 which resulted in lower grades and recoveries.
Capstone is anticipating higher throughput rates in H2 following the final installation, commissioning and tie in of new tailings pumping infrastructure. During June mill ore throughput averaged 17ktpd, a monthly record, and the final tie in of the new infrastructure was completed in July with the ramp up to 20ktpd expected during Q3.
Other
Largo Inc. focused on reducing operating costs and improving productivity at the Maracas Menchen mine during H1 2024, to navigate a period of lower vanadium prices which reduced to
Throughput at the McClean Lake Mill increased by 16% as output from the Cigar Lake mine increased by 21% to 5.1Mlbs (H1 2023: 4.2Mlbs). Cameco's full year 2024 Cigar Lake production guidance remains 18Mlbs.
The Group sold down the majority of its equity holding in LIORC for proceeds of CA$11.1 million (
Advanced Development Stage Royalties
Santo Domingo (Copper)
Capstone published an updated feasibility study for the fully permitted Santo Domingo project in Q3 2024. The updated Feasibility Study enhanced the mine's economics with low capital intensity and first quartile costs. Capstone is now focusing on optimising the financing structure of the project and in parallel will advance the detailed engineering of the project. Ecora owns a 2% Net Smelter Return ("NSR") royalty over part of the Santo Domingo project that covers the highest copper grade portion of the mine plan. In the initial six to seven years of production in the Group's royalty area, annual production is expected to be 106ktpa of copper and 4.7 Mtpa of by products (including gold and iron).
West Musgrave (Nickel-copper)
BHP announced in February 2024 that it was reviewing the plans for its Western Australia nickel operations, which include the West Musgrave nickel-copper project, at the same time it stated that on a standalone basis West Musgrave could still generate reasonable returns. In July 2024, BHP announced that it would be temporarily suspending the construction of the West Musgrave project in October 2024 with the decision to be reviewed by February 2027.
Piauí (Nickel)
Brazilian Nickel has completed the detailed engineering studies that were incorporating the learnings from the small-scale plant with a view to optimising the flow sheet ahead of advancing financing discussions for the construction of the project. A final investment decision is not expected before 2025 which would trigger the Group's right, but not obligation, to invest a further
Nifty (Copper)
In May 2024, Cyprium Metals Limited announced the results of the Nifty Surface Mine Scoping Study. The results of the study show an expected average annual production of 36,000 tonnes of copper. Nifty is a brownfield development and the Board of Cyprium has approved the advancement to a Pre-Feasibility Study. The Group holds a 1.5% Realised Value Royalty over the Nifty project.
Early Stage Royalties
SW2 (Uranium)
In March 2024, NexGen Energy Ltd announced the discovery of a new intense uranium zone on its SW2 property located around 3.5km east of its world class Arrow Deposit in Saskatchewan, Canada. Ecora has a 2% Net Smelter Return Royalty on parts of the SW2 Rook 1 property which contain the new discovery. In August 2024 NexGen provided an update on the results of its drilling programme which confirmed that the footprint of the new discovery is larger than Arrow's at the same stage of metres drilled and shows all the signs of being another world class discovery.
Canariaco (Copper)
In June 2024, Alta Copper Corp. filed a new Technical Report and Preliminary Economic Assessment ("PEA") for the Canariaco Copper Project over which the Group holds a 0.5% NSR royalty. The PEA outlines a project producing an average of 158ktpa of copper in the first ten years and with a total mine life of 28 years at an estimated upfront capital cost of
Amapá (Iron Ore)
In March 2024, Cadence Minerals announced results of an optimisation study for the Amapá Iron Ore Project which delivered material capital savings to the project. In July 2024, Cadence announced an updated PFS-level economic study with an increased NPV for the project of
FINANCE REVIEW
The first half of the year saw increased portfolio contribution owing largely to the 2.0Mt in production from the Group's private royalty lands at Kestrel, which was higher than expected and at the upper end of the Group's full year guidance. As a result, the Group's portfolio contribution increased from
The second half of the year will see an increase in deliveries from the Group's Voisey's Bay cobalt stream following the successful installation of the materials handling unit at the Reid Brook deposit. This is a key milestone for the ramp up of the underground mine which is expected to result in 40 deliveries annually once the mine reaches steady state production, a significant increase from the 12-16 deliveries being forecast in the current year.
Absent further acquisitions, the second half of the year should see a reduction in net debt from its peak of
The Group's new capital allocation policy was announced at the end of March and along with the payment of the 2023 final dividend, the Group executed a
With modest and manageable levels of leverage and significant headroom on the Group's borrowing facility the Group remains in a strong financial position and is well capitalised to continue to execute its growth strategy.
Results
The Group's portfolio contribution increased by 15% to
The key driver for the increase in the Group's portfolio contribution during H1 2024 was the expected increase in volumes from Kestrel as production returned to the Group's private royalty lands, compared to H1 2023. Slightly offsetting the higher volumes at Kestrel was the combined impact of slightly weaker coal prices, which declined from
Production at Voisey's Bay in H1 2024 reflects the ongoing transition from the open pit mine and ramp-up to full production of the underground mine. As a result, cobalt deliveries reduced by 33% to four in H1 2024 (H1 2023: six). In addition to the reduction in cobalt deliveries in the first half, the cobalt price remained depressed with the Group realising an average sales price of
Elsewhere, volumes at Mantos Blancos were impacted by localised geotechnical issues resulted in a 15% reduction in royalties for H1 2024, despite the stronger year on year copper price, with royalties totalling
Whilst not included in portfolio contribution, the Group has continued to benefit from the price linked contingent consideration in conjunction with the Narrabri disposal. The Group is entitled to a $/t payment should the thermal coal price exceed
The table below outlines the key drivers of portfolio contribution increases in the period.
|
HY1 2024 |
|
HY1 2023 |
|
Variance |
|
|
$m |
% PC |
$m |
% PC |
% |
Notes |
Kestrel |
40.8 |
80% |
31.8 |
72% |
28% |
In line with the Group's guidance of Kestrel volumes being weighted towards H1 2024, volumes increased by 49% from 1.34Mt in H1 2023 to 2.0Mt in H1 2024 as production returned to the Group's private royalty lands Price achieved decreased by 8% resulting in the average royalty rate decreasing from 20.45% in H1 2023 to 19.09% in H1 2024
|
Voisey's Bay |
2.0 |
4% |
3.1 |
7% |
(35%) |
4 deliveries received during H1 2024, compared to 6 deliveries received during H1 2023, reflecting the ongoing transition from the open pit to the underground mine and associated ramp-up The Group achieved an average sales price of
|
Mantos Blancos |
2.8 |
5% |
3.3 |
7% |
(15%) |
Volumes decreased by 19% which reflects a planned mill shutdown in Q1 2024 and a short-term localised geotechnical issue that impacted mine sequencing in Q2 2024 Price achieved increased by 4%
|
Maracás Menchen |
1.1 |
2% |
1.7 |
4% |
(35%) |
Price achieved decreased by 34% reflecting lower demand for vanadium from China in H1 2024 H1 volumes remained flat year on year
|
Four Mile |
1.4 |
3% |
0.6 |
1% |
133% |
Volumes decreased by 33% - 1.9Mlbs in H1 2024 vs 2.8Mlbs in H1 2023 Lower volumes were offset by the 53% increase in average price achieved -
|
Carlota |
0.3 |
1% |
0.3 |
1% |
- |
Other represents revenue generated by the Carlota royalty acquired in July 2022 |
Royalty and stream income |
48.4 |
|
40.8 |
|
19% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dividends - LIORC & Flowstream |
0.3 |
1% |
1.0 |
2% |
(70%) |
The Group monetised 94% of its holding in LIORC between Q4 2023 and Q2 2024 realising H1 2024 dividends reflect the smaller holding despite the dividend per share increasing from
|
Interest - McClean Lake |
0.8 |
2% |
0.9 |
2% |
(11%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Royalty and stream related revenue |
49.5 |
|
42.7 |
|
16% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EVBC |
0.5 |
1% |
1.2 |
3% |
(58%) |
|
Principal repayment - McClean Lake |
1.7 |
3% |
1.3 |
3% |
31% |
Throughput at the McClean Lake Mill increased by 16% in H1 2024, reflecting increased output from Cigar Lake |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Less: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Metal steams cost of sales |
(0.4) |
(1%) |
(0.7) |
(2%) |
(43%) |
Reflects deliveries from Voisey's Bay decreasing to 4 in H1 2024 from 6 in H1 2023 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total portfolio contribution |
51.3 |
|
44.5 |
|
15% |
|
The Group's borrowings have increased from
The Group's combined current and deferred taxes resulted in an income tax charge for H1 2024 of
As a result, the Group generated a profit after tax for the period of
Dividends
Under the updated capital allocation policy, the dividend is now calculated based on a payout ratio of the average free cash flow generated in the immediate two preceding six-month periods. The averaging of the two periods is designed to smooth out quarterly volatility from the Kestrel royalty as it moves in and out of the Group's private royalty lands.
The H1 2024 free cash flow of
Balance Sheet
Net assets decreased by
Total royalty and stream related assets, net of associated deferred tax, at 30 June 2024 were
Net assets of
Cash flow and liquidity
As the royalties from Kestrel were weighted towards Q2 2024 and therefore not received until after the period, following the final tax payments relating to the year ended 31 December 2023 totalling
During the period, the Group paid the final instalment of deferred consideration to South32 totalling
The Group undertook a
The Group refinanced its
Principal risks and uncertainties
Ecora Resources is exposed to a variety of risks and uncertainties which may have a financial, operational or reputational impact on the Group. The principal risks and uncertainties facing the Group in the second half of 2024 are the same as those disclosed in the 2023 Annual Report and Accounts, and relate to the following:
• Catastrophic and natural catastrophe risks
• Investment approval
• Future demand for our product
• Commodity prices
• Operator dependence and concentration risk
• Geopolitical events
• Financing capability
• Stakeholder support
The Group is exposed to changes in the economic environment, including to tax rates and regimes, as with any other business.
Details of any key risks and uncertainties specific to the period are covered in the Business and Portfolio review sections. Details of relevant tax matters are included in note 15 to the Condensed financial statements. The principal risks and uncertainties facing the Group at the 2023 year end are set out in detail on pages 63 to 67 of the strategic report in the 2023 Annual Report and Accounts. The 2023 Annual Report and Accounts is available on the Group's website www.ecora-resources.com
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Six months ended |
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30 June |
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30 June |
|
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2024 |
|
2023 |
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Notes |
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