The Times 12/11/19 | Vox Markets

The Times 12/11/19

Urgent reform of business rates and the apprenticeship levy is “essential” to help retailers to navigate the challenges posed by changing shopping habits, the industry has warned. The British Retail Consortium yesterday called on political parties to consider the plight of physical shops in their election manifestos. With high rates of closures and job losses, the group said that action must be taken “to ensure the industry can continue to support local communities up and down the country”. The consortium, which represents more than 5,000 businesses, said that business rates were “accelerating store closures, job losses and declining high streets and hindering the industry’s ability to invest in the stores of the future and in new technology which will benefit UK shoppers”.

Sirius Minerals (SXX) is trying to breathe new life into its £5 billion fertiliser mine under the North York Moors National Park by touting for a “strategic investor” to help to provide $600 million to get the project back on track. Sirius is being watched closely by its army of 85,000 retail shareholders, many of them locals, who have been backing the project. Politicians in North Yorkshire say that the government should intervene to kick-start the project, to create hundreds of jobs, a new industry and boost a regional economy affected by the decline of the steel sector. The company is constructing the Woodsmith Mine, close to the coastal town of Whitby. The deep mine is seeking large deposits of polyhalite, a type of potash used in fertiliser. However, progress to secure the project’s future stalled in September when the issue of a $500 million junk bond, key to unlocking much greater investment, was withdrawn.

Informa (INF) has bought a stake in a networking business for entrepreneurs set up by one of the co-founders of Lastminute.com. Informa said yesterday that it had made a minority investment in Founders Forum and had started a joint venture with the organisation, which holds events that bring together investors, chief executives and technology entrepreneurs. The forum was co-founded by Brent Hoberman, 50, who with Baroness Lane-Fox of Soho, 46, was behind Lastminute.com, an online travel agent that epitomised the dotcom boom at the turn of the century.

A string of partnerships to provide international money payments has made Finablr PLC (FIN) “highly confident” about its prospects. The global payments platform said that its adjusted income had risen by 9% to $1.2 billion in the first nine months of the year, while earnings were up 22% to $182.3 million. Finablr has signed deals with Samsung, the South Korean electronics group, to provide international money transfers to 47 countries, and Airtel Africa, the telecoms and money services business, to allow customers to send money from more than 100 countries into Airtel Money wallets across Africa. It also announced an agreement with China Union Pay to collaborate on cross-border payments into mainland China.

Greggs (GRG) shrugged off fears of a slowdown in trading yesterday as the maker of sausage rolls and sticky buns upgraded its profit forecast for the fifth time in only a year. The bakery chain said that recent trading had held up well against strong sales during the same period last year. Roger Whiteside, 61, the Greggs chief executive who has presided over thirteen profit upgrades during his seven-year tenure and only two downgrades, said that consistent improvements since the third quarter of 2018 had been thanks to rising customer numbers rather than price rises.

The South African technology investor targeting a takeover of Just Eat (JE.) is pressing ahead with its proposed £4.9 billion offer despite being warned the price is not high enough. Naspers yesterday published its offer document detailing the terms of a potential deal, but the only change was a cut in the required level of acceptances from Just Eat shareholders for the takeover to go ahead from 90% to 75%. Just Eat responded by reiterating its advice that investors should reject the 710p-a-share cash bid, which is being made through Prosus, Naspers’ Dutch spin-off. Shareholders in Just Eat must choose between a takeover by Naspers, a proposed merger with Takeaway.com that has been recommended by the board, or remaining independent. Investors speaking for about 22% of the company’s shares have publicly expressed their opposition to the Naspers bid.

A fall in the number of people dying has hit profits at Dignity (DTY), Britain’s only listed funeral provider. The Sutton Coldfield-based business said that its underlying profit had dropped by 30% for the 39 weeks to the end of September, down to £47.9 million from £68.6 million in the same period in 2018. That corresponded with a 5% drop in the number of deaths in England, Scotland and Wales from 455,000 to 432,000. Dignity said that its performance had been consistent with its expectations, allowing for a “significantly lower number of deaths, particularly in the first half of the year”. It managed 52,100 funerals in the first 39 weeks of 2019, down from 55,700 last year. Profits also were hit by a slight dip in market share and higher costs.

The private equity backers of Trainline Plc (TRN) were poised last night to sell their residual holding in the London-listed ticket-buying app, bringing the total raised from selling out to about £1.4 billion in the space of five months. Investors led by KKR announced plans to sell their remaining 68 million shares in Trainline, representing a 14.1% stake, via a secondary placing after the market had closed yesterday. The investors offloaded £840 million of their holdings at the time of the Trainline flotation in June and another £285 million-worth in a placing in September at 435p.

Aston Martin Holdings (AML) shares accelerated higher yesterday after analysts speculated that the upcoming launch of the luxury carmaker’s latest model could be “game-changing”. Bosses are pinning their hopes on its first 4×4 — the DBX — which is set to be launched this month, although first deliveries of the £158,000 car aren’t expected until next summer. HSBC’s auto analysts, who are now buyers of the stock, given the plunging share price, reckon that there are several reasons why sales of the DBX “could surprise to the upside”. First, they point to rivals such as Bentley’s Bentayga, the Lamborghini Urus and Rolls-Royce’s Cullinan, which are “getting old and losing share”, something that Aston Martin can exploit. To do that, the 4×4 needs to be competitive, which HSBC fully expects it to be. “The first journalist reviews we have seen for the model were all very supportive and, having seen the car ourselves, we expect the order book will build quickly and be stronger than the market expects,” the analysts said in a research note. They expect sales of the DBX to peak at just over 3,000 vehicles in 2021, with a hybrid variant, which could arrive shortly after, helping to ensure that demand doesn’t collapse after that. HSBC lifted its price target to 550p, from 533p.

ECO Animal Health Group (EAH) revenues have been ravaged by African swine fever in China, meaning that its first-half results will be lower than those achieved in the same period of 2018. Its shares fell by 85p to 272p.

Tissue Regenix Group (TRX) lost more than two thirds of its value after warning that it was likely to breach one of its banking covenants. The company, in which Woodford had a 20% stake until it was transferred to Link Fund Solutions, said last month that it was struggling to keep up with orders and that revenue could be as much as 20 per cent below forecasts. Now it has revealed that the top-line miss means it will breach one of the covenants of a $20 million loan. It is in talks with Midcap Financial, the lender, but the stock fell.

Tempus – Just Eat (JE.): Hold. The Just Eat share price, unchanged at 738p, tells us neither offer is acceptable. One or both suitors should sweeten the terms

Tempus – European Investment Trust (EUT): Hold. Baillie Gifford’s track record is impressive but it may be best to wait for the switch before diving in

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Mentioned in this post

AML
Aston Martin Holdings
DTY
Dignity
EAH
ECO Animal Health Group
EUT
European Investment Trust
FIN
Finablr PLC
GRG
Greggs
INF
Informa
JE.
Just Eat
SXX
Sirius Minerals
TRN
Trainline Plc
TRX
Tissue Regenix Group