Press | Vox Markets
NXT
The controversial retail tycoon who saved Next (NXT) from collapse in the late 1980s has died aged 76. Sir David Jones, who was suffering from Parkinson’s disease, is credited with rescuing the firm as it teetered on the brink of disaster and rebuilding it into one of the UK’s most successful high street businesses. He joined the fashion chain in 1986 when it bought home shopping catalogue business Grattan. Two years later Sir David became chief executive after a boardroom coup, when Next’s founder George Davies was ousted. When he arrived, Next was worth a meagre £25m, but after nearly 20 years at its helm as chief executive and chairman, the retailer’s market capitalisation rocketed.
GRG
Costa and Greggs (GRG) are eyeing bumper vegan sales with meat-free toasties and bakes as part of their menus for the New Year. Coffee chain Costa will launch a vegan ham and cheese toastie as part of its largest vegan menu. Greggs, the baker, is expected to offer a meat-free version of its steak bake following the success of a vegan sausage roll it launched in January 2019. Its meat-free steak bake uses Quorn as a substitute. Tyneside-based Greggs caused a buzz last New Year when it rolled out the meatless roll. The vegan alternative to its regular breakfast snacks proved a hit.
BA.
Questor: the Saudi factor has held BAE Systems (BA.) back but is becoming less significant – time to buy. Questor share tip: the defence company’s drive to sell more to countries such as Australia is reducing its dependence on riskier markets
Equitable Life will cease to exist at midnight, bringing down the curtain on the world’s oldest member-owned insurance group. Its 176,000 policyholders will transfer to a new company after most of them accepted an offer of £9,000 each on average in return for giving up guarantees on the value of their contracts. The arrangement, agreed by policyholders in November and the High Court this month, has taken more than a year to plan and will formally take place tonight, meaning that the society will dissolve after almost 260 years. Equitable also will release £1.9 billion of capital to the new owner.
NXT
Sir David Jones, who helped to build Next (NXT) into one of the high street’s most powerful retailers and a stalwart of the FTSE 100, has died aged 76. Having helped to rescue Next from the brink of collapse in the 1980s, he increased the group’s market value by 160 times from a low of £25 million to a high of more than £4 billion over 17 years as chief executive and then non-executive chairman. He joined Kays, the catalogue business, as a 17-year-old trainee and later became an accountant after a seven-year correspondence course. He joined Next after its merger with Grattan, the mail order business, in 1986. Two years later he was installed as chief executive after a bitter boardroom battle in which George Davies, Next’s founder, was ousted. Next was among the heaviest fallers with a slide of 142p to £71.28 as investors braced for a trading update on Friday. The figures from the fashion chain will be an indicator of how the retail industry has fared over the crucial festive trading period. Analysts at Jefferies told clients yesterday that they expected Next to stick with the guidance it issued in October, when it said that it expected to post annual pre-tax profits of £725 million, up 0.3% on last year. Springboard, the data business, found last week that retailers were hit by a steep fall in shoppers on Boxing Day, with footfall down 8.6% compared with last year. However, the Jefferies analysts said they believed that Springboard’s findings could be “misleading” because Boxing Day “coincided with dreadful weather conditions”. The analysts pointed to other recent confidence surveys from GfK and the Institute of Directors that painted a more upbeat picture of sentiment.
VOD
Vodafone Group (VOD) declined after it was among a group of four telecoms companies that were fined a total of €13.2 million by the Dutch consumer regulator for carrying “incorrect and incomplete information” on their websites. The fine levied on Vodafone’s arm in the Netherlands totalled just over €3.1 million. A Vodafone spokesman said the company believed the fine was “disproportionate and unjustified” and said that “legal proceedings are currently being brought against that penalty decision”.
NMC
NMC Health (NMC) shares stabilised following an attack by a short-seller this month. The San Francisco-based Muddy Waters issued a 34-page report in which it raised “serious doubts” about NMC’s financial statements. The private hospitals operator called those claims “false and misleading”. Despite yesterday’s gain, the stock is far from fully recovered from the Muddy Waters onslaught. The shares were trading at almost £26 before the attack.
Britain’s biggest private hospital chain has been sold to a smaller rival in one of the biggest industry deals in more than a decade, prompting a review by the competition regulator. BMI Healthcare, which operates 52 hospitals and cared for more than two million patients last year, has been acquired by Circle Health for an undisclosed sum. It creates a combined business with almost £1 billion in annual revenues. In a separate but related deal, Medical Properties Trust, a New York-listed investor, has bought 30 of the hospital properties for £1.5 billion.
AAOG
The chairman behind the restructuring of resigned yesterday morning, on the day of its annual meeting, after financial traumas at a company he used to run. David Sefton said that he was stepping down after “rumour and market speculation” over his role at Anglo African Oil & Gas (AAOG), an explorer focused on the Republic of the Congo. Iconic said that Mr Sefton had felt that his presence on the board “was having an adverse effect” on the company.
RIO
Rio Tinto (RIO) is preparing to resume minerals production at a site in South Africa almost a month after violence forced it to halt operations. The Anglo-Australian mining group said that it expected to return to full operations at its Richards Bay Minerals site in KwaZulu-Natal province in the east of the country by early January and would be back to regular production shortly afterwards. The site processes black beach sand from which it extracts about two million tonnes a year of minerals, making it one of the world’s biggest sources of ilmenite, rutile and zircon.
UK high streets have shed more than 140,000 jobs this year as store closures and retail failures made 2019 one of the most challenging years in a generation. More than 2,750 jobs were lost every week, according to a detailed analysis by the Centre for Retail Research (CRR) published today. It predicts the picture will worsen in 2020, unless the government intervenes, with high business rates one of the factors blamed for accelerating chain store closures. Prof Joshua Bamfield, the CRR’s director, said retail was in crisis owing to high costs, low levels of profitability and sales moving online. “These problems are felt by most businesses operating from physical stores in high streets or shopping malls,” Bamfield said. “The low growth in consumer spending since 2015 has meant that the growth in online sales has come at the expense of the high street.”
Champagne has slumped in popularity in the UK over the past year, while consumers also kept other forms of sparkling wine on ice. Sales of the premium French bubbly fell by 28% from about 18m to 13m bottles in the last recorded 12 months, leaving the UK market worth £613m – or about £47 a bottle. The figures suggest that the lower-end champagne has been hit particularly hard. As recently as 2016, more than 23m bottles were sold in the UK, which was worth £753m, or £33 a bottle – according to the Wine and Spirit Trade Association (WSTA), the industry body that compiles the figures. The lack of fizz in the champagne market came as the WSTA reported that general sparkling wine sales had also dropped by volume, slipping by about 5% on last year to around 140m bottles, with revenues flat at £1.5bn.
PRU
Prudential (PRU) to prioritise Asia after split. Asia chief says region will be ‘preferred destination of capital’ after UK demerger
Tough new emissions controls could see car manufacturers hit with mega-fines next year amid disappointing sales of electric vehicles. Fines relating to the sales of new cars begin on Jan 1 in accordance with EU emissions standards and are set to deliver another blow to the beleaguered sector. In 2020 manufacturers will have to meet controls on CO2 emissions averaging 95g per km on all new cars they sell. According to the EU, this works out at fuel consumption of about 4.1 litres per 100km of petrol and 3.6 litres per 100km of diesel. Missing the target will mean a penalty of €95 (£81) per car for each gram per km by which firms miss the target.
City bankers are hoping British companies will embark on a bigger shopping spree in the year ahead after the size of UK takeover deals plunged to its lowest point since the year of the EU referendum. The value of takeovers involving UK companies fell 50% on last year to $189bn (£146bn), according to Dealogic, despite various blockbuster deals taking place this year including the £4.6bn sale of British beer business Greene King to Hong Kong’s richest man Li Ka-Shing and the London Stock Exchange’s $27bn (£22bn) swoop for data provider Refinitiv. Takeover activity was last this low in 2016, when political uncertainty dragged the value of deals down almost 60pc to $185bn.
NUM
Investment banks are treating their clients more favourably than other companies in equity research coverage, an investigation by The Times has found. The study of the ratings given to listed companies by City brokers provides strong evidence of bias to customers. The findings suggest that reforms introduced by the European Union two years ago to reduce potential conflicts of interest are failing. Of the 16 brokers analysed by The Times, all but one were more likely to favour clients. The analysis ranged from the big Wall Street investment banks, such as JP Morgan, to smaller City firms, such as Numis Corporation (NUM). The analysis found that for Goldman Sachs 47% of its clients were rated a “buy”, compared with 37% of non-clients, and 13% of its clients were rated “sell”, compared with 18% of non-clients. At JP Morgan, 49% of its clients were “buys”, against 42% of non-clients, and 11% of its clients were rated “sell” compared with 17% of non-clients. The analysis of Panmure Gordon found that 93% of its clients were rated “buy” compared with 48% of its non-clients. None of its clients was rated “sell”. Berenberg and Goodbody also did not rate any clients a “sell”.
FUTR
An American hedge fund that blocked a rescue deal for Interserve, the giant outsourcer, has taken a £17 million short position in Future (FUTR). Coltrane Asset Management is betting that the publisher’s share price is heading for a fall. Its shares have drifted lower since November 27, when a clutch of senior managers sold stock worth £44 million. On the same day the hedge fund, which is based in New York, disclosed that it had taken a sizeable wager against Future. Coltrane has since expanded its short position from 0.67% to 1.2% of the company’s outstanding shares.
HSBA
HSBC Holdings (HSBA) is plotting an overhaul that could see up to 10,000 jobs axed. Noel Quinn, the lender’s interim boss who is vying to win the role on a full-time basis, will unveil the shake-up in February as he seeks to cut costs across the sprawling global bank. In the firing line will be parts of HSBC’s US division, its retail banking operations in France and about 10,000 jobs. In the US, it is understood that HSBC is considering offloading its west coast branches. Based in cities such as Los Angeles, Seattle and San Francisco, this arm of HSBC serves a large community of ex-pats from countries such as China and Mexico. But it is less tightly focused and performs more poorly than the lender’s east coast branches, which date back to HSBC’s acquisitions of Marine Midland and Republic in the 1980s and late 1990s respectively. The east coast operations, thanks to Republic, include a strong private wealth division which HSBC thinks will remain useful.
SMIN
The boss of Smiths Group (SMIN) is poised to leave the company after it spins off its £2billion medical arm, it has been claimed. Andy Reynolds Smith, 53, could stand down from his role after the deal is completed in the first half of next year. The de-merger would be a ‘natural moment’ for Smith, who has been chief executive for four years, to stand aside, a source told the Sunday Times.
Almost £4billion has flowed back into UK equity funds after Boris Johnson’s election triumph, according to new data. The cash boost comes after analysts said certainty around Brexit had been restored following the decisive Conservative victory earlier this month. During the campaign and the week afterwards, £3.8billion of investment was ploughed into London-listed stocks, EPFR Global said. It was the strongest wave of investment since the second half of 2015, before the EU referendum.
III
MTFB
MIDAS SHARE TIPS: Computer gamer leads the winners in our 2019 tips. Midas verdict: Team17 (TM17) shares have had a great run, reflecting business success and a growing City fan club. At £3.82, investors may wish to sell a chunk of stock and bank some profits, but they should hold at least half their shares, as Bestwick is a shrewd operator in a fast-growing industry. Midas verdict: Shares in 3i Group (III) have done well but the private equity environment is tough. Competition for new deals is fierce and global economic prospects are uncertain. At £11.03 the stock seems fully valued, so investors should reduce their holdings. Midas verdict: This has been a sorry tale. Shareholders have every right to feel aggrieved. Iclaprim may finally gain approval but Motif Bio (MTFB) will need a new owner with deep pockets. At 0.4p the shares are going nowhere. I am very sorry for having recommended them.
Britain’s economy is set to grow by less than 2% next year and house price rises could take up to six months to kick in, analysis by The Mail on Sunday shows. Economists said that while Britain may well be free to make its own trade deals after January 31, there is no cutting loose from a world economy facing multiple sources of instability. The experts said the US-China trade war and the potentially fraught negotiations over the UK-European Union agreement on market access would act as barriers to growth in 2020. They warned that the talks between London and Brussels would be conducted against the backdrop of an ‘overdue recession’ for advanced economies. Forecasts for UK GDP growth ranged from a pessimistic 0.5% – suggested by the financial information group IHS Markit – to the more upbeat 2% offered by Liverpool Macro Research. The International Monetary Fund prediction for the UK was 1.4% in 2020 – below the 1.7% expected for the US but on a par with the 1.4% forecast for the eurozone.
Almost £4bn has been ploughed back into funds that invest in London-listed shares since the election was called, in the biggest wave of money since prior to the EU referendum. Recovering investor confidence after Boris Johnson’s decisive victory in the election has driven billions back into UK stock funds in recent weeks. About £3.8bn returned to the UK’s “unloved” stock market during the campaign and the week after the prime minister’s triumph, according to data firm EPFR Global. Money had been leaking out of UK equity funds for most of 2019 but London’s market has seen the strongest inflows since the second half of 2015 during the recent reversal.
DEB
Debenhams (DEB) has had an annus horribilis. Once the main fixture in dozens of town centres, the department store chain is on life support after falling into the hands of its lenders earlier this year. It hopes that enough shoppers came through the doors in the run-up to Christmas to deliver a last-minute boost. After the festive season is finished, the retailer will shut 22 shops, with a further 28 of the 166 earmarked for closure, to cut costs. But even so, some industry observers have warned the axe has to fall significantly deeper to make a difference. Debenhams is running hard just to stand still.
BP.
BP’s retiring chief executive has accused campaigners and politicians of oversimplifying the climate change crisis, arguing that natural gas should be a bridge between fossil fuels and renewables. Bob Dudley said it was “hard to find people who understand the complexity of the energy system” and warned the world would “not even come close” to replacing fossil fuels with renewables in the next two decades. Dudley’s comments to The Sunday Times follow a year of increasing pressure on energy giants and their investors over climate change. BP (BP.), which produces the equivalent of 3.7m barrels of oil and gas a day and is directly or indirectly responsible for 491m tons of annual carbon emissions — more than the entire UK — has been targeted by Extinction Rebellion protesters and dropped as a sponsor by the Royal Shakespeare Company (RSC) and National Galleries Scotland. BP’s forecasts suggest that if the world continues to tackle climate change at its current pace, oil, gas and coal will still account for 73% of energy consumed in 2040. Even under a “rapid transition”, along the lines of the Paris Agreement, they will account for an estimated 56%.
SMIN
The boss of conglomerate Smiths Group (SMIN) is likely to step down next year after the demerger of its £2bn medical business. Andy Reynolds Smith, chief executive since 2015, has been under pressure from investors since he was forced to abandon a merger of Smiths Medical, which makes devices such as catheters, with American rival ICU Medical. The Smiths board was uncomfortable with the terms of the deal, which would have seen ICU pay in shares. Since Smiths pulled out in September last year, ICU’s stock has tumbled by more than a third. In March, Smiths, which also makes airport scanners and industrial equipment, said it would spin off the medical business into a separate listing. The division’s performance has been deteriorating: sales rose 1% to £874m last year but operating profits fell 6% to £147m, which Smiths blamed on regulatory costs and “inefficiencies”.
SDR
EZJ
DNLM
BOO
GLEN
EVR
TED
The Schroders (SDR) dynasty are this year’s biggest winners on the London stock market, having chalked up gains at a rate of more than £4m a day. By Christmas Eve, the Schroder family’s stake in the eponymous fund manager had grown to £3.9bn — up almost £1.5bn after a strong year for the FTSE 100 which gilded the fortunes of many of Britain’s wealthiest individuals and families. Analysts at Argus Vickers provided The Sunday Times with details of all London-listed shareholdings worth more than £10m. The analysis showed that easyJet (EZJ) founder Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou is another of 2019’s winners. His family’s shares in the budget airline are now worth £1.28bn — up by £289.7m over the year. Amid gloom on the high street, one of this year’s surprising successes has been the share price of Dunelm Group (DNLM). Members of the Adderley family, who own more than half the retailer, have seen the value of their stake increase by more than £537m. Meanwhile, the shares owned by Boohoo.com (BOO)-founder Mahmud Kamani and his family in the fast-fashion brand have risen by £434.1m. Ivan Glasenberg, the chief executive of Glencore (GLEN), has seen the value of his stake in the commodities giant plunge by £663m. Two other Glencore investors, Daniel Maté and Telis Mistakidis, are sitting on losses of £248.4m and £246.2m respectively. Roman Abramovich’s stake in Evraz (EVR) is down more than £458.6m. The London-listed steel giant has been hit by the slowing global economy and the US-China trade war. Ray Kelvin’s stake in Ted Baker (TED) is now worth less than £65m — down from £225.4m a year ago. The tycoon resigned in March amid disputed claims of “forced hugging”.
 
STCK
Stock Spirits Group (STCK) handed its boss a £200,000 package so he could move from Poland to Britain — even though most of its products are sold in eastern Europe. The company’s annual report revealed the arrangement with Mirek Stachowicz, who relocated in August to “focus on the group’s strategy, which includes M&A”. He will be reimbursed for school fees, rent and other expenses for two years, capped at £200,000 a year. News of the relocation package comes as an activist investor is pressing for a special dividend. Western Gate, which represents the family office of Portuguese cash-and-carry tycoon Luis Amaral and is Stock Spirits’ second-biggest shareholder, claims the company offers the lowest cash return among its peers, with a dividend payout of 60.5% against an average of 71.3%.
AZN
AstraZeneca (AZN) has been riding high for the past year as one after another of its most promising drugs has won approval from the world’s medicine regulators. Cancer treatments such as Tagrisso, Calquence and Lynparza won the approval of America’s Food & Drug Administration. Chief executive Pascal Soriot has been applauded for returning the Cambridge-based drugs giant to a leading position. Sales were once dominated by maturing blockbusters such as Crestor, Symbicort and Nexium, but are spread across cancer and cardiovascular drugs. Now these drugs are on the market, they are at the mercy of external winds such as China’s drug reforms and pricing pressure in America, where there is greater discipline on budgets. Analysts at UBS point to slowing prescriptions for Tagrisso in America and warn that Lynparza will face stiff competition next year. Astra’s top drug, Tagrisso, is on track to reach sales of $5.9bn by 2023, provided the healthcare payers continue to pay up. Soriot still has a challenge ahead. Hold.
The Boxing Day sales were a damp squib for struggling high street retailers with the much smaller crowds blamed on a combination of bad weather and rival Black Friday discounts offered in November. Shoppers still started queueing before dawn outside shopping centres such as the Trafford Centre in Manchester and branches of high street chain Next. However, by closing time retail experts suggested visitor numbers were around 10% down on 2018. Retail analysts Springboard said the 9.8% drop was the biggest since 2010’s Boxing Day when the UK economy was at a virtual standstill. Diane Wehrle, its insights director, said the figure was very disappointing: “The drop is much bigger than anticipated, it seems like the steam was taken out of Christmas by Black Friday.”
GSK
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) is ramping up its use of artificial intelligence and recruiting 80 AI specialists by the end of 2020 as it turns to cutting-edge computing to develop medicines of the future. However, the UK’s largest drugmaker by revenue is struggling to hire enough AI researchers and engineers from areas such as Silicon Valley and is looking to former employees in academia, the US Navy and the music industry to fill positions in the new team. They will be spread across London, Heidelberg, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Boston. The AI unit will be headquartered in San Francisco, with one GSK executive admitting competition for AI professionals is fierce. “In AI, we are scouring the planet for the best people. These folks are very rare to find. Competition is high and there aren’t a large number of them,” said Tony Wood, GSK’s senior vice-president of medicinal science and technology.