  | Sir Richard Branson was last night facing a backlash amid fears he and fellow investors could pull the plug on Flybe Group (FLYB) less than a year after coming to its rescue. The entrepreneur’s airline teamed up with Stobart Group Ltd. (STOB) and hedge fund Cyrus Capital to snap up Flybe on the cheap in early 2019, with the promise to invest £100million to turn the ailing carrier around. The deal – which was completed in March – all but wiped out shareholders, with investors receiving 1p a share as part of the £2.2million rescue. The consortium, known as Connect, insisted this was the ‘most realistic means’ of securing the airline’s long term future after it had been hammered by high fuel costs, competition and spiralling debts. But it is understood that two of Connect’s shareholders – Stobart and Cyrus – are now reluctant to inject £100million into Flybe in the coming years unless ministers agree to delay the airline’s multi-million pound air passenger duty bill. This has left the airline on the brink of collapse, according to Sky News. |
 | Circassia Pharmaceuticals (CIR) one for the recovery portfolio as sales pick up. City broker finnCap expects Circassia’s revenues to rise to £84million this year and to hit £106million in 2021, with a healthy profit in two years’ time. Cash at the latest year-end was also higher than expected at £27milllion with outflows in the second half dropping to about £5million from £20million a year earlier. Changes in the boardroom have also seen listed biotech company veterans Ian Johnson and Michael Roller take over as executive chairman and CFO respectively of Circassia. A dispute over the distribution of a breathing product for babies is a reminder that there still might be a few bumps in the road. But with revenue rising, costs under control and the potential of the Tudorza re-labelling and Duaklir approval to come through fully, a market value of £87million at 23.3p does not reflect the recovery potential. |
 | Savills (SVS) shares jump after announcing that the UK commercial and residential markets picked up after last month’s general election. The real estate business said its full-year results for 2019 will be at the ‘upper end’ of expectations, following an ‘excellent’ performance in the UK. Savills said that Brexit uncertainty had restrained UK growth until mid-December, but saw ‘a strong close to the year as confidence to transact returned to the market’. The firm also said it was particularly ‘resilient’ as it faced challenging backdrops in both the UK and Hong Kong. In Hong Kong, Savills said the political unrest had a severe impact on trading from the middle of 2019 and continues to press on performance in the region. It announced that, as a result of the political backdrop, its Asia Pacific region has performed ‘slightly below’ expectations, while the company has also seen an increase in the time taken for its Australian business to bear fruit. |
 | William Hill (WMH) said profits for the past year are expected to have surpassed expectations after it was buoyed by favourable sporting results in December. The gambling giant said this helped to boost its retail division and increase total group profits. It expects operating profits from continuing operations in 2019 to have been between £143million and £148million. The company said it made ‘good progress’ despite a challenging regulatory backdrop which saw its retail business hit by a heavy reduction in the maximum stake for fixed-odds betting terminals. |
 | Train delays and poor attendances during the Rugby World Cup will cause profits to be ‘slightly below expectations’ at the The City Pub Group (CPC). The pub chain has said its earnings have been hit by a set of ‘one-off factors’ over the last year, although they still expect to make a profit of around £9million. These include the South West Trains strike in December, the underwhelming impact of the Rugby World Cup and ‘unhelpful weather’. They also blame the sales impact on political uncertainty and the delayed opening of two former Jam Tree pubs in London for hitting profitability. Bosses had previously warned the company was reining in ambitious expansion plans, blaming Brexit and the potential impact of a no-deal departure. |
 | Shares in Verona Pharma (VRP) were the day’s stand-out performers after its phase IIb clinical trial was hailed as a big success. Verona has developed a treatment for a life-threatening respiratory condition called chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Patients were given the Verona drug as an add-on to the current, established medication. The results of the trial were described as impressive. |
| Thousands of passengers could be left stranded across Europe by the collapse of Flybe Group (FLYB) as the airline teeters on the brink. Customers in 170 foreign cities across Europe face being left to fend for themselves, forced to find their own way home and recoup costs from credit card companies. Flybe is thought to be just days away from running out of cash after it was hit by poor winter trading and credit card firms refused to hand over fare payments due to fears about the firm’s financial health. With the majority of Flybe passengers not covered by travel industry lifeboat Atol, ministers were last night under growing pressure to step in. The firm – Europe’s biggest regional airline with more than 8 million passengers a year – is locked in last-ditch rescue talks with the Government to repair a multi-million pound hole in its finances. |
| Aston Martin Holdings (AML) needs a £500m cash injection within weeks to stabilise the embattled luxury car maker. The prediction was made by analysts at Redburn and follows talks the company is understood to have held with several foreign potential investors. Falling sales and profits combined with the expense of launching the DBX, the company’s first SUV, have put intense pressure on Aston’s finances, with its almost £900m debt pile leading some to think the business is close to breaching its banking covenants. According to reports, Chinese electric car battery maker CATL is the latest in a series of groups to have held discussions with Aston about an investment to prop up its finances. Fellow Chinese automotive group Geely – which owns Lotus, black cab maker LEVC, Volvo and Lynk & Co – is also said to be interested. | |
 | AstraZeneca (AZN) is braced for a $100m (£77m) hit after it was forced to axe a fish oil tablet which was found to be ineffective at treating a condition linked to heart disease. The drugs firm said it will halt trials, which were at their most advanced and expensive stage, on the drug. Called Epanova, it was valued at $533m in previous accounts. The drug was intended to treat patients with a condition called mixed dyslipidaemia which causes abnormal levels of cholesterol and fatty substances in the blood known as triglycerides and can lead to heart disease. |
 | Former Africa minister Mark Simmonds faces embarrassment after a company he joined last week warned it may have been scammed over a non-existent $184m (£157m) loan. Mr Simmonds has launched an urgent investigation into the deal, in which oil explorer Lekoil Ltd (DI) (LEK) appears to have been tricked into thinking it had secured cash from the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) for a project in offshore Nigeria. Lekoil hired the ex-Foreign Office minister as a non-executive director last week and suspended its shares on Monday. The Aim-listed explorer said it appeared to have struck a deal not with the QIA but with individuals masquerading as its representatives. It said: “The company will be contacting the relevant authorities across a number of jurisdictions without delay, with regard to what appears to be an attempt to defraud Lekoil.”. |
| Britain recorded its largest ever trade surplus in November as companies chose to run down their stocks before importing more goods from overseas. The country’s trade balance rose to £4 billion in November, up from a deficit of £1.3 billion in October, according to the Office for National Statistics. Although the headline figure suggests than the UK has a healthy trade position, a £5 billion, or 7.8%, fall in imports on the month indicates that companies rushed to stockpile component goods before October 31 and then made fewer orders in November. Andrew Wishart, at Capital Economics, the consultancy, said that the numbers “strongly suggest businesses built up their inventories in October and didn’t need to buy as much in November.” Exports also surged by £3 billion in the month, but this was largely thanks to an increase in trade of erratic items, including aircraft and gold. Samuel Tombs, at Pantheon Economics, another consultancy, said that trade surpluses would not become the “norm” for Britain. “We expect the monthly trade balance to return to a deficit of £2 billion to £3 billion, once Brexit-related volatility has washed out,” he said. | |
| Lekoil Ltd (DI) (LEK) appears to have been defrauded after paying $600,000 for a fake $184 million loan agreement with people pretending to represent Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund. Shares were suspended yesterday after the Qatar Investment Authority queried the supposed loan, which was announced on January 2 and led to a rise in Lekoil’s share price. Last night Lekoil said it appeared that the loan agreement, supposed to fund drilling at the huge Ogo oilfield off Nigeria, had been made with “individuals who have constructed a complex façade in order to masquerade as representatives of the QIA”. Lekoil said it had paid $600,000 “in good faith” to Seawave Invest Limited “in its capacity as introducer to those purporting to be the QIA and lead adviser to the company in relation to the facility agreement”. It said there was no guarantee it could recoup these funds. Lekoil faces a race against time to secure alternative funding by February, when it must make a $10 million payment to its partners in Nigeria and show that it can raise a further $28 million. If it fails to do so, it may be forced to sell its interest in the Ogo field. |
| AstraZeneca (AZN) is to take a hit of up to $100 million after a heart disease trial failed. Astrazeneca has decided to close a late-stage study of Epanova, which will lead to a write down of inventories and weaken its earnings in the fourth quarter. The drugs company was also reviewing the $533 million value of Epanova on its balance sheet. The disappointing results follow the recommendation of an independent data monitoring committee. |
 | Spirent Communications (SPT) expects its profits to rise by a fifth thanks to increasing investment in faster fixed-line and mobile networks. Spirent Communications said that its revenues had risen to $503 million last year and that adjusted operating profit would climb from $77 million to between $91 million and $93 million. The earnings projection was 10% higher than investors had expected. “Good momentum continued into the final quarter of 2019, with the group securing a number of important contract wins,” the company said. Spirent highlighted increased spending by customers on the next generation of mobile phone networks, known as 5G. Telecoms companies are also upgrading their fixed telecoms networks to meet soaring demand for high-speed internet access, boosting sales of Spirent’s products and services. |
| Savills (SVS) is expecting higher profits after Boris Johnson’s election victory boosted property transactions at the end of last year. Savills said that its annual profit would be at the upper end of the £134 million to £142 million that had been forecast previously by analysts. “The clear outcome of the general election prompted a strong close to the year as confidence to transact returned to the market,” the company said. A slowdown in property transactions caused by political uncertainty in Britain and Hong Kong contributed to a 7% fall in first-half profit to £24.7 million. Unrest in the Chinese territory was a continuing problem but Savills reported a “resilient performance” there as a result of increasing market share. It said that its year-end results also had been boosted by significant growth in the United States and a strong performance by its investment management division. Chris Millington, an analyst at Numis, a broker, said that the results were “a great achievement in light of the volatile market backdrop”. |
| William Hill (WMH) two most senior female executives are leaving the company amid efforts to simplify its management structure. As the bookmaker said yesterday that its annual profits would be ahead of expectations, it also emerged that Ruth Prior, who joined as chief financial officer in October 2017, was heading for the exit. Ms Prior, who came to William Hill from Worldpay, is returning to the private equity sector as chief financial officer of Element Materials Technology. The company said that Ms Prior, who is on 12 months’ notice, would receive no payoff or bonuses because she had resigned. Her leaving date has yet to be determined but William Hill has begun to search for a successor. Separately, The Times has learnt that Lyndsay Wright, who joined the group in 2008 to set up its investor relations function and in 2018 took charge of its strategy for tackling the harm caused by gambling, is leaving the company. The two departures are the latest senior changes at the group since Ulrik Bengtsson was promoted to replace Philip Bowcock as chief executive in September. Terry Pattinson, group trading director, and Paul Durkan, chief information officer, also have left. |
 | Relx plc (REL) has spent $375 million on a small American company that helps clients to spot fraud and credit risks. In one of its largest takeovers of the past decade, Relx is buying ID Analytics, which is based in San Diego, California, from Norton Life Lock, a listed software developer. The company will fold the business into its Risk and Business Analytics division, which operates under the Lexis Nexis Risk Solutions brand. Analysts at Barclays called it a “small deal in the context of Relx”, but said that it made “a lot of sense strategically”. The company was “not a major acquirer of businesses, so anything that they buy in the hundreds of millions is noteworthy”, the analysts added. |
 | The break-up of Travis Perkins (TPK) has begun with the sale of a small part of its £1.5 billion plumbing and heating division. The sale of Primaflow fires the starting gun on the clear-out at Travis Perkins of businesses boasting more than £2.5 billion of annual sales, accounting for nearly 40% of group revenues. In addition to the plumbing and heating businesses, whose main trading brands are City Plumbing and PTS, Travis Perkins has put its Wickes do-it-yourself consumer business up for sale. Last year Wickes’ made revenues of £1.2 billion but its profits more than halved to only £25 million. The plumbing and heating businesses made operating profits of £39 million on annual sales of £1.5 billion. Travis Perkins has spent more than £45 million separating the plumbing and heating businesses, but has “paused” its sale process because of what it has called unprecedented uncertainty in trading conditions in the sector. |
| Finablr PLC (FIN) – Travelex is restoring in-store electronic customer orders as it seeks to recover from a disruptive cyberattack and criticism over a lack of communication with customers. The foreign exchange business said that it was in a position to begin restarting customer-facing systems in its retail branches and those of its partners, which include supermarket chains. The company has faced criticism for keeping customers in the dark, but it has said that its reactions and the nature of its customers’ transactions had limited its ability to notify people directly. It is expected this week to outline a timetable for restoring other services, including online orders. Travelex also said yesterday there was no evidence to suggest that customers’ data had been “compromised”. | |
 | Shares in Pennon Group (PNN) soared to an all-time high after it emerged that the daddy of the international buyout market KKR has been sniffing around the group with a reported £4 billion offer for its rubbish clearance and recycling business Viridor. The City was betting that both Viridor and South West Water could become bid targets. The former has been a candidate for sale ever since Pennon announced a strategic review of the shape of the business last autumn. That signal that Pennon could demerge or dispose of Viridor had pushed Pennon stock toward record highs. News that KKR, the American private equity firm formerly known as Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, had approached the group over Viridor and that an auction could break out, sent the shares to new peaks |
| A disappointing World Cup tournamnet was part of a cocktail of negatives that left the The City Pub Group (CPC) nursing a nasty hangover yesterday. Shares fell after a warning that full-year earnings would be “slightly below market expectations” owing to a series of one-off factors at the end of the year. It said that the Rugby World Cup, which it showed on screens in its pubs, “did not have the impact that we expected”, while political uncertainty before the general election had held back sales until the result was known, with companies limiting Christmas party budgets. Clive Watson, executive chairman, said that the timing of the rugby matches in the morning had not been ideal and that the tournament had “never really kicked in” with the same enthusiasm of previous ones. Trading also was dampened by “unhelpful weather during November and December” and delays to the refurbishment of two sites — “we shot ourselves in the foot” — while last month its London pubs were hit by disruption from industrial action on South Western Railway. |
    | Yields on UK government bonds slipped lower as expectations grew that the Bank of England will move to cut interest rates at its next policy meeting this month. The speculation led to a stampede into bonds while the returns were still relatively decent, which in turn pushed up the price of government debt. Those who missed out on the initial rush were left to look elsewhere for yield, which drove the demand for energy and water suppliers. United Utilities Group (UU.) flowed higher to 971p, while its peer in the Midlands, Severn Trent (SVT), added 59p to £25.18. Centrica (CNA) also got in the act as it rose to 87½p, and SSE (SSE), the Scottish energy provider, added 19½p to reach £14.45. |
  | Housebuilders were lifted by a bullish trading update from Savills (SVS), the estate agent. “The clear outcome of the general election prompted a strong close to the year as confidence to transact returned to the market,” Savills said, adding that its annual results would be at the top end of forecasts. Its shares climbed to £12.32, while those of Taylor Wimpey (TW.) rose to 202p, and Barratt Developments (BDEV), added 12¼p to sit at 768½p. |
 | Just Group (JUST) fell to the bottom of the mid-cap leaderboard after the life insurer was downgraded to “underperform” by analysts at Credit Suisse. The Swiss bank also cut its price target for the company, which specialises in selling policies to people with shorter life expectancies, such as smokers, citing “less attractive risk-reward and higher regulatory headwinds” in the sector. |
  | Shares in Marston’s (MARS) and Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) fell after both of which were downgraded by JP Morgan. The heavyweight investment bank said that the share prices had “caught up” after a strong 2019, although, with an “absence of significant catalysts in either direction”, it did away with its “outperform” ratings and moved to “neutral” instead. |
| Verona Pharma (VRP) was among the top risers yesterday, surging by a quarter after its lead treatment for a nasty lung condition breezed through a mid-stage study. Ensifentrine has been developed to treat chronic obstructive pulmonary disease by helping to open up the airways in the lungs. Patients reported a “statistically significant and clinically meaningful” improvement in their lung function during the four-week trial. Jan-Anders Karlsson, chief executive, said that he was “delighted” with the results and that Verona would start planning a final, phase III trial, pencilled in for the third quarter of this year. |
 | Tempus – Pershing Square Holdings Ltd NPV (PSH): Buy. Investment manager is back on form, pays a dividend and the shares are cheap |
 | Tempus – Learning Technologies Group (LTG): Avoid. Interesting growth story, but shares are expensive |
| The EU will be unashamedly “political” and block the City of London’s access to European markets if Boris Johnson tries to exempt the UK from its laws. Croatia’s prime minister, Andrej Plenković, whose country is taking over the presidency of the EU, made the bloc’s intentions clear after the prime minister insisted the UK would not be aligned to the bloc’s regulations. Asked whether the EU would use its power to switch off the City’s ability to serve European clients to gain leverage in the coming negotiations with Britain, Plenković said: “I wouldn’t go into the vocabulary of weapons but what I have learned in international and European negotiations [is] that all arguments and considerations are treated as political.” A major issue in the EU-UK negotiations over the future relationship concerns the extent to which the British government wants to diverge from the bloc’s rules in various sectors of the economy. The outgoing governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, said this week that it would not be appropriate for the UK to be a “rule-taker” in the field of financial services after Brexit. The European commission president, however, warned of the economic costs of seeking a loose relationship with the EU. Ursula von der Leyen was also speaking in Zagreb following a meeting with Johnson in Downing Street. |
 | London Stock Exchange Group (LSE) set to send $27bn Refinitiv deal to EU watchdog. Sides need to agree what constitutes market against which tie-up can be assessed |
| Two of the world’s largest banks have redrafted their economic forecasts amid expectations a new political momentum will lift Britain from the doldrums. The optimistic breeze blowing through financial and economic circles has identified Boris Johnson’s £100billion infrastructure spending plan and the possibility of a good UK-European Union trade deal as reasons to be cheerful. The Bank of England has also aired the possibility of an interest rate cut. Back in the autumn HSBC and JP Morgan cut their 1.2% 2020 growth forecasts to just 1%. But, according to the independent research group Consensus Forecasts, they have since raised their predictions to 1.1%. | |
| John Lewis is on track to deliver a profit slump after the exit of its department store boss and dismal trading figures, City sources say. The department store is set to report just £30million profit in the year to the end of January before any bonus is handed to staff. That would be a quarter of the profit reported last year, according to retail analyst Nick Bubb. He said the fall at the retailer, which has a £4billion-a-year turnover, would mean the group bonus would be ‘mostly blown away’. John Lewis’s sister chain Waitrose, which made an operating profit of £200million last year, is expected to deliver a more ‘solid’ performance, Bubb added. However, another analyst, Richard Hyman, said the departure of department store boss Paula Nickolds, Waitrose managing director Rob Collins and chairman Sir Charlie Mayfield to make way for his replacement Sharon White, a former chief executive at Ofcom, leaves a power vacuum at the firm. | |
| Readers of The Mail are being urged to avoid a ‘scam’ advert doing the rounds on professional networking website LinkedIn promising annual returns of up to 35%. The advert is from London-based company UK Bonds, which claims to be the ‘UK’s leading provider in secure investments’. Its website – ukbonds.org.uk – says the products it offers are covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme and approved by the City regulator. It then uses the logos of the London Stock Exchange, the FSCS and two media groups to give its offerings further credence. Justin Modray, of Candid Financial Advice, saw the advert on LinkedIn a few days ago and immediately smelt a financial rat. He says: ‘There were no company details on the website other than an address and telephone number. I imagine there are a lot more websites like this that seek to take advantage of vulnerable people.’ On Friday, investigations by Personal Finance confirmed that the company is not authorised by regulator the Financial Conduct Authority. Also, one of the companies promoted by UK Bonds said the product was ‘not legitimate’ and ‘had nothing to do with them’. |
| One of Britain’s oldest department stores has warned it is on the brink of administration as the retail industry faces an increasingly bruising period. Beales, a department store that first opened its doors in Bournemouth in 1881, said up to 1,000 jobs and 22 stores across the country were at risk if it failed to find a suitable buyer. It is currently in discussions with landlords to cut down its rent payments, as well as two potential buyers, including another retailer and venture capital investor, according to the BBC. The warning comes at a time when Britain’s high street retailers have been left out in the cold by consumers going online for their purchases. |
| The executive in charge of marketing and communications during the ill-starred flotation of Aston Martin Holdings (AML) has left the luxury carmaker. Days after Aston revealed falling deliveries, deepening losses and spiralling debt, it was announced that Simon Sproule, its head of marketing and public relations, had left to become chief communications officer at Fiat Chrysler. He is yet to have been replaced at Aston Martin Lagonda. With the company valued at more than £1 billion, reports have linked the Canadian billionaire Lawrence Stroll, 60, Geely, the Chinese carmaker and Lotus owner, and Catl, the Chinese battery maker, as potential investors. | |
 | One of America’s oldest investment funds has quietly built a near one-fifth stake in Micro Focus International (MCRO). Dodge & Cox, which has more than $300 billion under management, has amassed a 17% stake in the embattled British company. It first arrived on the Micro Focus shareholder register after its ill-fated takeover of Hewlett-Packard’s software division in 2017. The US fund giant has topped up its holding several times since. It comes as the company prepares to update shareholders on its plans to revive its fortunes early next month. |
  | William Hill (WMH), GVC Holdings (GVC), Flutter Entertainment (FLTR) – The gambling industry watchdog is preparing to ban bookmakers from taking credit card deposits for betting online, in the latest move to prevent the exploitation of vulnerable customers. The Gambling Commission is expected to announce the long-awaited ban on credit card wagers, with the rules due to be unveiled as soon as Tuesday. Well-placed sources said an announcement by the regulator was imminent. It comes two years after charity groups such as GambleAware and Citizens Advice urged the government to implement the policy to protect people from sliding into gambling addiction. Major betting websites including PokerStars, Betfair, 888 Holdings (888) and Bet365 all currently allow their customers to make deposits online using credit cards, which has led to warnings from campaigners that gamblers risk racking up huge debts. The regulator’s latest interventions come amid mounting expectations that the government will begin the process of drawing up a new Gambling Act to replace the one passed by Tony Blair’s government in 2005, which has been criticised for dramatically reducing regulation. The industry’s reputation has taken further blows in recent weeks after revelations about its reliance on so-called VIPs making heavy losses, and concerns about a commercial deal with the Football Association to live-stream FA Cup games. The £750m deal to provide seven bookmakers with exclusive rights to screen some fixtures sparked an outcry – leading the FA to agree that matches would be shown elsewhere, too. The Gambling Commission and the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport both declined to comment. |
 | Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) has warned its 60,000 staff including the chief executive, António Horta-Osório, to expect their first bonus cut in four years after a number of problems at the bank, including a last-ditch surge in payment protection insurance (PPI) claims. The Guardian understands staff received a memo from the bank telling them to expect a smaller bonus pool shortly after the bank revealed a £1.8bn charge linked to a spike in PPI claims in October, which is expected to dent full-year profits. The charge reduced third-quarter profits by 97%. The remuneration committee, which determines the final size of the bonus pot, allocated £464.5m to be shared between staff and top executives last year. However, the figure for the 2020 payout is likely to shrink for the first time since 2016, owing to numerous factors. |
 | NMC Health (NMC) is preparing to take legal action after a short-selling attack on the firm wiped £2.6billion off its value, The Mail on Sunday can reveal. Shares in NMC Health halved after American short-seller Muddy Waters published a damning report that raised red flags over NMC Health’s accounting practices, claiming its finances pointed to possible ‘fraudulent asset values and the theft of company assets’. A source close to the company revealed it has engaged two major law firms to advise on filing a possible lawsuit to repair its reputation. The source said: ‘NMC Health is considering all potential legal remedies, both civil and criminal.’ The legal claim will focus on actions taken by third parties to ‘mislead the market and manipulate the share price’, according to a statement to the stock exchange. Muddy Waters, run by the notorious bear raider Carson Block, and a group of hedge funds based in the US, Switzerland and London, cashed in from the share price fall because they were ‘shorting’ the shares. Funds that have built up short positions in NMC include AQR Capital, PSquared, Gladstone Capital Management and Portsea. The NMC insider said the crash triggered by Muddy Waters’ report on December 17 has created a ‘material loss’ for NMC’s pension fund backers and institutional investors, which include BlackRock and Legal & General. |
| MIDAS SHARE TIPS: A nice pint? Flat white? Property? has got the lot. Midas verdict: Some observers may find Barkby hard to understand, but Dickson is highly driven, and determined to turn it into a sizeable, prosperous and dividend-paying business. At 29p, the shares could provide an exciting ride for the adventurous investor. Dickson is also highly incentivised to make this venture work, as he and his family own more than 60 per cent of the stock. |
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