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Will Wage Data ease Bank of England Inflation Worries?

14:11, 16th January 2024
Justin Waite
Taking Stock


Will Wage Data ease Bank of England Inflation Worries?

Taking Stock: Monday 15th January 2024

British wages grew at the slowest pace in almost a year adding to signs of a gradual cooling of the inflationary pressure in the labour market that has worried the Bank of England.

Growth in wages excluding bonuses slowed for a third release in a row to an annual 6.6% in the September-to-November period compared with 7.2% in the three months to October, the Office for National Statistics said, matching the median forecast in a Reuters poll.

It was the weakest increase in regular earnings since the three months to January 2023.

Yael  Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said the deceleration in pay growth signalled further weakness for the labour market ahead.

"The marked slowdown in pay growth will ease the Bank of England’s concerns of a potential wage-price spiral, which could lead to faster falls in inflation," Selfin said.

"Vacancies are also expected to fall further, which could see pay growth normalising towards levels consistent with the inflation target by the end of the year. This will likely bolster the case for interest rate cuts later this year."

Britain's economy might have fallen into a recession in the second half of 2023, data showed last week.

Tuesday's ONS release showed vacancies fell for the 18th time in a row in the three months to December, dropping by about 49,000 on the quarter.

Inflation data is out  tomorrow:

CPI (YoY) (Dec)

Forecast 3.8%

Previous 3.9%

(Click here to read more)

Companies discussed on “Taking Stock” today:

02:30 Begbies Traynor #BEG 
03:15 Ocado #OCDO 
05:19 Rightmove #RMV 
08:43 & 22:13 Card Factory #CARD 
11:17 BlueStar Capital #BLU 
11:30 Equals #EQLS 
12:49 Cab Payments #CABP 
16:55 THG Plc #THG 
18:55 Eqteq #EQT 
20:28 Cairn Homes #CRN 
26:10 IQGeo #IQG 
32:00 Relx Plc #RELX 
32:48 McBride #MCB 
35:15 Ramsdens #RFX 
37:05 Microsaic Systems #MSYS
37:15 Northcoders #CODE 
39:20 Hercules #HERC 
41:20 Motorpoint #MOTR 
42:15 Vertu #VTU 
43:40 Journeo #JNEO
43:45 Eagle Eye Solutions #EYE 


UK's largest nightclub owner calls in administrators

The UK's largest nightclub operator has said it plans to bring in administrators as it struggles with higher bills.

Rekom, which owns the Atik and Pryzm brands, said any restructure of the business could see some of its well-known nightclubs shut for good.

The firm said the last year had been a challenging time for the industry.

It blamed higher energy prices and students cutting back because of the cost of living for its problems.

Rekom, which operates around 35 clubs in the UK, admitted last year that its nightclubs were struggling because of poor midweek trading that was usually driven by students.

(Click here to read more)

Inflation risk from Red Sea disruption, warns economist

Inflation is at risk of rising again, according to a leading economist, following attacks on ships using a vital trade route through the Red Sea.

Mohamed El-Erian said while disruption to shipments was not as severe as during Covid, he warned it would push up prices and hit economic growth.

Several shipping firms have stopped vessels using the Red Sea route after attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Around 12-15% of global trade travels through the Red Sea via the Suez Canal.

(Click here to read more)

Fuel retailers forced to share price changes within 30 minutes under Pumpwatch plan

Fuel retailers will be forced to quickly share price changes under government plans to ensure pump costs are fair.

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) said its Pumpwatch proposals could save customers 3p per litre.

Under the scheme, now out for consultation, forecourts would have to enter prices within 30 minutes of a change to enable drivers to easily access the cheapest petrol and diesel.

It found drivers were overcharged by £900m in 2022 due to supermarkets failing to pass on cuts from falling oil prices.

(Click here to read more)


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The information, investment views and recommendations in this article are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engaging in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the writer but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. Vox Markets may receive payment from companies mentioned for enhanced profiling or publication presence. The writer may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.

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