GCIWill Wage Data ease Bank of England Inflation Worries?
Will Wage Data ease Bank of England Inflation Worries?
Taking Stock: Monday 15th January 2024
British wages grew at the slowest pace in almost a year adding to signs of a gradual cooling of the inflationary pressure in the labour market that has worried the Bank of England.
Growth in wages excluding bonuses slowed for a third release in a row to an annual 6.6% in the September-to-November period compared with 7.2% in the three months to October, the Office for National Statistics said, matching the median forecast in a Reuters poll.
It was the weakest increase in regular earnings since the three months to January 2023.
Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said the deceleration in pay growth signalled further weakness for the labour market ahead.
"The marked slowdown in pay growth will ease the Bank of England’s concerns of a potential wage-price spiral, which could lead to faster falls in inflation," Selfin said.
"Vacancies are also expected to fall further, which could see pay growth normalising towards levels consistent with the inflation target by the end of the year. This will likely bolster the case for interest rate cuts later this year."
Britain's economy might have fallen into a recession in the second half of 2023, data showed last week.
Tuesday's ONS release showed vacancies fell for the 18th time in a row in the three months to December, dropping by about 49,000 on the quarter.
Inflation data is out tomorrow:
CPI (YoY) (Dec)
Forecast 3.8%
Previous 3.9%
Companies discussed on “Taking Stock” today:
02:30 Begbies Traynor #BEG
03:15 Ocado #OCDO
05:19 Rightmove #RMV
08:43 & 22:13 Card Factory #CARD
11:17 BlueStar Capital #BLU
11:30 Equals #EQLS
12:49 Cab Payments #CABP
16:55 THG Plc #THG
18:55 Eqteq #EQT
20:28 Cairn Homes #CRN
26:10 IQGeo #IQG
32:00 Relx Plc #RELX
32:48 McBride #MCB
35:15 Ramsdens #RFX
37:05 Microsaic Systems #MSYS
37:15 Northcoders #CODE
39:20 Hercules #HERC
41:20 Motorpoint #MOTR
42:15 Vertu #VTU
43:40 Journeo #JNEO
43:45 Eagle Eye Solutions #EYE
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