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Tiny Build: Progressive

08:58, 30th September 2024
Progressive Research
Company Broker Research
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Interim results: Let’s play

Takeaways from today’s results are: (i) cash US$9.2m vs US$2.5m at end-December; (ii) own IP 78% of Gaming revenue vs 65% at H1 23. While CEO Alex Nichiporchik describes the market as ‘difficult’, the H1 print tell us that the focus on cash generation and financial stability is working. The strategy of ‘investing cautiously’ in higher-budget games and building a diversified portfolio of own IP is similarly working. tinyBuild is gaining mindshare and added over 3 million wishlists across the portfolio in June alone. Own-IP sales were up to US$13.1m, from US$12.8m last year, as group revenue fell 19% to US$18.8m. Short- term fortunes remain tethered to H2 performance but tinyBuild has an improved pipeline (including larger-budget US$1m+ titles). We adjust estimates to reflect a highly competitive market for new launches, with FY24E adj. EBITDA at US$0.3m (prior US$1.1m). tinyBuild retains its emphasis on IP, expanding reach, title debuts and monetising the back-catalogue, which should encourage Investors. H1 was a rebuild, a catalyst to addressing the stark valuation gap (EV/Sales 0.3x vs sector 2.3x).

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Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest

The information, investment views and recommendations in this article are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engaging in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the writer but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. Vox Markets may receive payment from companies mentioned for enhanced profiling or publication presence. The writer may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.

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