Rosneft optionality makes BP 'prime ceasefire beneficiary', says JPMorgan
JPMorgan Cazenove upgraded on Thursday as it took a look at EU oil and gas stocks and considered the implications of a Russia/Ukraine ceasefire.
The bank said it expects the sector to be viewed as a net loser as the market infers a peace deal bringing additional Russian pipeline gas flows into Europe.
It noted that to date, high-end TTF geared names like 'overweight' Equinor and Var appear to have efficiently discounted lower prices.
"However, we caution an imminent and meaningful resumption of flows appears far from straightforward, while select corporates also retain legacy Russian asset option value," JPM said.
"Our fundamental preference is for superior barbells of leverage and resilience, and core overweights Shell, TotalEnergies remain well placed."
The bank upgraded BP to 'neutral' from 'underweight' and lifted the price target to 510p from 440p as it said the outsized Rosneft option value mitigates cash cycle tensions.
"Rosneft optionality makes BP a prime ceasefire beneficiary," the bank said. "This presents a deleveraging 'silver bullet' which mitigates previously analysed cash cycle tensions."
Meanwhile, it double downgraded OMV to 'underweight' and cut the price target to €40 from €46 following a recent petrochemical hedge inspired rally which it said leaves the valuation and consensus earnings per share "appearing full".
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