PCE and personal income bode well for stocks

By Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB

Is there anything that can disrupt the stock market rally in the US? A solid 2.8% print for Q3 GDP, strong corporate earnings, the prospect of deregulation and a steady path towards lower interest rates, all reinforce US exceptionalism as we move towards the end of 2024.

The PCE report for October came in line with expectations, the annual headline rate was 2.3%, up from 2.1% in September, but this increase had been expected by the market. The core rate was 2.8%, up from 2.7%, but this was also in line with expectations. The monthly core rate for PCE was 0.3%. Although this is a little hot, it is not outside the most recent range for monthly increases.

US traders can pack up for the Thanksgiving holiday with little to fear at this stage. The core PCE report was driven by service sector price increases, which rose at a 2.75% annual rate, while durable goods prices fell last month. Overall, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation suggests that the Fed is right to tread a careful path when it comes to rate cuts, but it continues to support a gradual easing in Fed policy.

The market impact

There is now a 66% chance of a rate cut from the Fed next month, according to the Fed Funds Futures market, up from a 63% chance on Tuesday. The dollar has backed away from intra day lows, but it is still the weakest performer in the G10 FX space on Wednesday. US bond yields are down a touch across the curve. US stocks are down so far on Wednesday. The S&P 500 is lower by 0.18%, the Nasdaq is down by 0.8%. Both indices have had a strong November and are higher by 3.48% and 2.7% respectively, month-to-date.

There were some surprises in the personal income data, which rose at double the pace in October compared to September. The 0.6% growth rate also bodes well for stocks. Real income growth has been trending higher in recent months, which is good news for consumption, and thus stock market returns.

As the focus shifts to the US retail sector and the strength of the US consumer, it could be a very good Black Friday, which is already expected to be record-breaking. A better-than-expected performance could see further stock market gains. As we move into the final weeks of the year, a strong Black Friday may boost the wider stock market, which has started to outperform the US tech giants, as you can see below.

Chart 1: The Russel 2000, The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500, normalized to show how they move together. In recent weeks, the Russell has outperformed the other two blue chip indices, in a sign that the US stock market rally is broadening out.

Source: XTB and Bloomberg 

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