Five macro predictions for 2025
Five macro calls for 2025:
1. Trump's US import tariffs trigger a global trade war, unsettling major indices. S&P500 falls 10% in Q1'25 to 5,400 and closes 2025 flat YoY.
2. Ukraine/Russia conflict ends, sending oil prices and defence stocks lower.
3. UK unemployment rises above 5% due to weak economic growth, automation, and Employer NI tax hikes.
4. Labour government suffers more public sector strikes (schools, council workers, Universities, etc) after recent inflation-busting and nonproductivity-based pay increases, which incentivise other unions to take industrial action.
5. Bank of England forced to cut interest rates faster and deeper than expected as GDP and jobs data disappoints, boosting home prices and the UK housing market. UK smallcaps outperform as they borrow at front end of yield curve and deliver 15%+ EPS growth, closing Dec'25 up 20% at 880 vs FTSE 100 flat.
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